tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post554033496070178102..comments2024-03-28T18:49:08.603-04:00Comments on Hot Corner Harbor: Who are the Hall of Famers Playing Today? 2006, Part 3Theohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-3659633003488318212012-08-03T12:30:35.559-04:002012-08-03T12:30:35.559-04:00That's an interesting point on Ichiro. I was s...That's an interesting point on Ichiro. I was sort of counting on some extra consideration for being the first major position player to come to the US from Japan. I think his ten All-Star picks might help show his popularity, but now that you mention it, those were mostly fan picks. Maybe I am making too many leaps.<br /><br />My entire reason for putting Beltre in Tier 3 is that he's young enough that I think he'll get 3000 hits (and possibly 400 home runs). My assumption is that, if he reaches 3000 hits, many sports writers will suddenly have a moment like they did with Thome a few years ago ("Oh! Now that he has a round number, I should start considering voting for him.").<br /><br />I agree that Beltran is probably already Tier 2. I might have been making too broad of a generalization, but I felt like people thought of him as a disappointment after the Mets deal. I think the last two season have helped to curb that. It will be interesting to see what voters do with so many good center fielders hitting the ballot at about the same time. <br /><br />With closers, my current theory is that voters look at save totals, then other stats to see if they support the idea that they were dominant. Their treatment of Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner will be my test cases-they were pretty similar, Wagner might have been slightly more dominant, but Hoffman blew him away in saves.<br /><br />I may have been over-relying on DIPS being more mainstream. Greinke might not need it if his next four or five seasons are good, though.Theohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07356047156527558873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1420149012024426620.post-32669808271910156682012-08-02T21:57:37.350-04:002012-08-02T21:57:37.350-04:00Theo, you and I evaluate Hall of Fame cases very s...Theo, you and I evaluate Hall of Fame cases very similarly, but I don't think the voters will agree with a lot of your placements.<br /><br />First off, I totally agree with ignoring "PE"Ds, since the next generation of Hall of Famers will have to drop this ridiculous crusade. There's no point in a Hall of Fame without Bonds and ARod and Clemens, even if they are three of the worst human beings in America.<br /><br />I'm not sure Ichiro is in Tier 1, since less sophisticated voters may be reluctant to count his Japanese numbers, which will leave him well shy of 3,000 hits, while more sophisticated voters may not be impressed by his empty batting averages, though his defense certainly helps.<br /><br />I'm not sure about Beltre in Tier 3. I agree that he's well on his way to justifying induction, but he frittered away his prime in Safeco and voters don't seem too impressed with great defense at third, so unless he stars in a bunch more World Series, I think we'll hear a lot of "I know what a Hall of Famer feels like and Beltre isn't one".<br /><br />Greinke's induction may depend a lot on DIPS theory taking off.<br /><br />I might put Beltran in Tier 2 already. Mets fans aside, I think a lot of people view him as a Hall of Famer already, and his case should only get stronger in the next year or two.<br /><br />Let's not talk about Lester and Beckett right now.<br /><br />Javier Vazquez was enormously underrated (DIPS again) and probably has the longest shot of anyone on your list. If Kevin Brown can't stay on the ballot for two years, Vazquez might not get two votes. Conversely, Michael Young is probably the worst player on your list, but he'll stick around on the ballot for a while because he hit a ton of singles.<br /><br />Joe Nathan could be an interesting case if this renaissance continues, especially if he closes in Texas for a few more years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com