Either way, since I’ve been comparing
past trade
packages recently, I figured why not continue further down this avenue?
What can a team trying to acquire Price or Samardzija expect to give up for a
year and a half their services?
Well, to start with, I went around looking for ace-type
pitchers who were traded in the last few years. I tried to be as complete as
possible, so in some cases, I stretched the similarities, going for players who
were under contract for fewer seasons, or who were more “young with potential”
than “ace-like” or “old and actually an ace”, and I might have missed some, but
in the end, these were the cases I found, in no order:
Cliff Lee to Philadelphia, 2009 (1.5 seasons left)
Cliff Lee to Seattle, 2009-2010 offseason (1)
Cliff Lee to Texas, 2010 (.5)
James Shields to Kansas City, 2012-2013 (2)
CC Sabathia to Milwaukee, 2008 (.5)
Mark Mulder to St. Louis, 2004-2005 (2)
Tim Hudson to Atlanta, 2004-2005 (1)
Dan Haren to Arizona, 2007-2008 (2 plus a club option)
Dan Haren to Los Angeles, 2010 (2.5 plus a club option)
Trevor Cahill to Arizona, 2011-2012 (4)
Gio Gonzalez to Washington, 2011-2012 (5)
Doug Fister to Washington, 2013-2014 (1)
Rich Harden to Chicago, 2008 (1.5)
Matt Garza to Chicago, 2011-2012 (3)
Matt Garza to Texas, 2013 (.5)
Zack Greinke to Milwaukee, 2010-2011 (2)
Zack Greinke to Los Angeles, 2012 (.5)
Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland, 2011 (2.5)
Erik Bedard to Seattle, 2007-2008 (2)
Johan Santana to New York, 2007-2008 (1)
Mat Latos to Cincinnati, 2011-2012 (4)
I’m pretty sure about the service times/years to free
agency, but finding past contract information can be hard to verify, so please
correct me if I’m wrong. In each case’s return, I’ll refer to the status of the
prospects in rankings if applicable.
That’s a lot to cover, so let’s just move on to each case:
Trade: Cliff Lee 1 (traded with Ben Francisco)
Age: 30
Year: 2009
Years Left: 1.5
Commentary: This was actually quite the haul, even if it
hasn’t paid off like Cleveland hoped. Knapp was 18 and would be ranked #64 on
the next year’s Baseball America (BA) ranking and #82 on the following year’s
Baseball Prospectus (BP) ranking. Carrasco, 22 at the time, was the prize,
coming off his third ranking on prospect lists (BA-52, BP-43). There were also
things to like about Donald (24) and Marson (23), who had both just appeared on
the BA list at 69 and 66, respectively.
Summary: No single outstanding prospect, but a lot of depth,
with a top-50 and three back-half of top-100 types.
Trade: Cliff Lee 2
Age: 31
Year: 2009-10 offseason
Years Left: 1
Commentary: Aumont, 21, was the only one with something of a
pedigree, as he was in between seasons of being ranked #93 both times (BA) or
#61 and #78 (BP). Gillies and Ramirez
were young and with potential. Both were coming off a season at High A at the
ages of 20, pretty young for the league. Still, it seems lacking compared to
what Philadelphia had just given up, as well as what Texas would give up for
him just months after this (although I’ve been critical
of Ruben Amaro’s trading in the past).
Summary: Centered around a lower-half top-100 prospect, with
two younger pieces with potential.
Trade: Cliff Lee 3 (traded with Mark Lowe)
Age: 31
Year: 2010
Years Left: .5
Commentary: Smoak, then a 23-year-old AAA player, was the
key part, having just been ranked a rather unanimous top-20 prospect (BA-13,
BP-17). No other players were key prospects. Lawson was a AA player who hit
well, but always played at around the average age of the league. Beaven, a
21-year-old at AA, was doing well while being 3+ years below league average. Josh
Lueke was and still is a piece
of
shit
(who the Mariners probably
shouldn’t have even acquired, and it got
someone fired), and wasn’t anything too special on the diamond either.
Summary: A top-20 prospect with some supplemental pieces,
one being a young lower-level player with potential.
Trade: James Shields (traded with Wade Davis and Elliot
Johnson)
Age: 31
Year: 2012-13 offseason
Years Left: 2
Commentary: Myers had just been named the minor league’s
best prospects, finishing #4 on BA and MLB.com lists and #7 on BP’s as a 21
year old in AAA. Montgomery had just been ranked #23 and #31 by BA and MLB.com,
respectively. He had faced injury concerns, though (which had taken him off
BP’s list), but he had also just finished a season as a 22-year-old in AAA.
Odorizzi, who was still on prospect lists before this season, was also just
done with his age 22 season, but in AA and a top-50ish prospect (BA-68, MLB-47,
BP-47). Lastly, Leonard was a bit of a lottery ticket, who had just finished
his first season in the minors and was a 20-year old leaving Rookie ball.
Summary: A top-5 prospect, a former top-30 one with serious
questions, a top-50ish, and a lottery ticket
Trade: CC Sabathia
Age: 27
Year: 2008
Years Left: .5
Commentary: LaPorta was the big name, coming off a ranking
as the 23rd (BA) or 31st (BP) best prospect, and leading
into another year of similar rankings. He was also only 23. Jackson was a 23-year
old in AAA not doing particularly hot.
Bryson was the lottery ticket, as a 20 year old still in A ball (about
on par for the league, but a ways off still). Brantly was the Player to Be
Named Later, and was named right after his age-21 season, an outfielder who had
just hit decently in AA.
Summary: A top-25 prospect, a young “lottery ticket” type, a
decent-not-great outfielder, and a sort-of thrown-in pitcher.
Trade: Mark Mulder
Age: 27
Year: 2004-05 offseason
Years Left: 2
Return: Daric Barton, Kiki Calero, and Dan Haren
Commentary: Fresh off his second All-Star selection (albeit
for a bit weaker of a season, finishing with a 103 ERA+), Mulder brought back
an interesting package or prospects. Barton was about to be named the #32
prospect by BA later that offseason after crushing A-ball pitching as an
18-year old. The Cardinals had been trying to move Haren into the rotation as a
23-year old, but he had been having issues. He had done pretty solidly in the
minors before that, but wasn’t in a top-100. Calreo was a good bullpen arm,
giving St. Louis 2 years of a 151 ERA+ before being dealt, although his first
season in Oakland was his age-30 season.
Summary: A very young but good (possibly top-30ish?) hitter,
A good but not top-100 pitcher, and a live bullpen arm for a pitcher with a
track record that was pretty good, but not quite fully ace-like yet (114 ERA+).
Trade: Tim Hudson
Age: 28
Year: 2004-05 offseason
Years Left: 1
Commentary: Cruz was about to be 26, and had shown skill as
an arm out of the bullpen for the prior three seasons (who had been a top
prospect 3 seasons or so before). Meyer was about to be named BA’s #43 prospect
a year after ranking #82. He had just finished a solid year as a 22-year-old at
AAA. Thomas had never been a top prospect, but had kind of hit in half of a
season in the majors in 2004 (109 OPS+). Unfortunately, he was an almost-26
year old corner outfielder, so nothing extremely valuable.
Summary: A former top-prospect turned bullpen arm, throw-in
outfield depth, and a top-50ish pitching prospect.
Trade: Dan Haren 1 (with Connor Robrertson)
Age: 27
Year: 2007-08 offseason
Years Left: 2, plus a club option
Commentary: After coming over in a trade for an ace, Haren
would later be sent out in his own deal. And a huge one at that. Anderson was
about to join the ranks of the top 50 prospects, placing #36 and #50 (BA/BP)
later that offseason at the age of 20. Carter, who had just arrived in the
Carlos Quentin trade, wouldn’t appear on top-100 lists for another year after
arriving. He was going into his age-21 season after crushing A ball as a
20-year old (a little young for his level). Cunningham, another recent arrival
from the White Sox, would make BA’s list the next year with Carter, but for
now, he was just a 21-year old who had just held his own in AA (about 3 years
below league mean). Eveland was a 24-year old with an injury history, but flashes
of promises. He had been in AAA at the end of 2008. CarGo was a definite
top-30ish prospect, between rankings of 18 and 22 in BA and 31 and 26 in BP. He
had just finished his age-21 season at AAA, hitting every step of the way.
Lastly, there was Smith, a old 24 year old who had just been called up to AAA
the last half of 2008.
Summary: A top 25ish prospect, a top-50ish, two young pieces
with a lot of promise, and a pair of pitchers, the more promising of whom came
with a bunch of injuries.
Trade: Dan Haren 2
Age: 29
Year: 2010
Years Left: 2.5, plus a club option
Commentary: Haren had been one of the game’s quieter and
better pitchers while in Arizona, and the team picked up some nice pieces in
flipping him. No one here was ranked before the trade, but Tyler Skaggs would
hit #82/83 (BA/BP) the next list cycle, and climb to the top 20 the following
year, so there was potential for the then 18-year old in A ball. Corbin was
also 20, and doing decently in High A just above him. Rodriguez was just
treading water in AAA, though, and was already 25. Saunders, unusually, was already a major
league product. He was a league-average 29-year old with two full season under
contract after 2010.
Summary: Two really young pitchers with a lot of potential,
a place-holder for the major league rotation, and AAA depth.
Trade: Trevor Cahill (with Craig Breslow)
Age: 24
Year: 2011-12 offseason
Years Left: 4 years, plus two club options
Commentary: Cahill wasn’t really an ace; he’s more here
because he was 24, above-average, and under contract for four-to-six more
seasons, making him crazy affordable. Parker, 22 and in AA, had been on
prospect lists for years, ending in the 30-40 range before this trade (#33 BA,
#42 BP). Cowgill was a 25-year old AAA outfielder, so more depth than anything.
Cook was a good 24-year old AAA reliever, so a solid piece with a low ceiling
(although he’d go on to be an All-Star).
Summary: A top-35ish pitching prospect, a AAA outfielder,
and a decent AAA reliever.
Trade: Gio Gonzalez (with Robert Gilliam)
Age: 26
Year: 2011-2012 offseason
Years Left: 4
Commentary: Another player who was included as a key
prospect in many deals before (see his transaction page), Gonzalez finally
became a centerpiece in a deal that highlighted a busy offseason for the A’s
(see the last blurb). Cole was 20, and about to enter the top prospect lists
(BA-57, MLB-88, BP-60) after a season at A ball. Milone, now 25, had just
debuted at the end of the previous season, and seemed like a solid enough in
the minors. Norris was only going on 23 and had just finished a season as a
top-40 prospect (BA-38, BP-28), although he would slip to #72/#41 before the
season. Lastly, Peacock had ended the season as a 23-year old in AAA, and would
make the three prospect lists that Baseball-Reference tracks at the start of
the season (BA-36, MLB-75, BP-64).
Summary: There doesn’t seem to be a consensus on any of
these guys, but it seems safe to call this at least 3 top-60 prospects and a
possible back-end starter.
Trade: Doug Fister
Age: 30
Year: 2013-2014 offseason
Years Left: 1
Commentary: I’m not counting the first Fister trade, as he
wasn’t yet a household name when the Tigers got him. I’m not sure the Tigers
maximized their return here, though. Krol, though 23, was just a reliever with
a chance to be decent, while
Lombardozzi, at 25, was pretty well established as a utility man. Ray, the
prize, only made one top prospect list (MLB-97), although he’s still just 22
and he shows promise.
Summary: A top-100 prospect and spare parts.
Trade: Rich Harden (with Chad Gaudin)
Age: 26
Year: 2008
Years Left: 1.5
Commentary: The biggest take away from this is that the A’s
just love trading off young ace-y pitchers, and they’re damn good at it. This
trade, interestingly, took a while, but he definitely paid off. None of these
guys were top prospects…but Harden was already known for pitching with a
hologram prone to vaporize at any minute disguised as an arm. Donaldson was a
22-year old (about on par with the league average) catcher in Single A.
Gallagher had just been ranked a unanimous #82 prospect before the season, and
was bouncing between the minors and majors at 22. Murton was known for crushing
minor league pitchers, but he was now 26 and bouncing between the pros and
minors as well. Lastly, Patterson was hitting well as a AAA second baseman…but
was already 25.
Summary: A lower top-100 prospect and some interesting
pieces possibly needing changes of scenery.
Age: 27
Year: 2010-11 Offseason
Years Left: 3
Commentary: Another former teammate of Price who experienced
his possible fate. Archer, then 22, had just made it to AAA at the end of the
season, and was agreed as a top prospect going in to 2011, although with wide
variance in opinions (BA-27, BP-70). Hak-Ju Lee was an interesting place
finishing his age-19 season. Baseball Prospectus had ranked him #63 the
previous year, and would rank him #65 in 2012, but wasn’t ranked for 2011.
Meanwhile, Baseball America would add him to their list that year at #92 (he
would rise to #44 the next year). Chirinos was entering his age-27 season
having just reached AAA, so he seems a bit like a throw-in. The same applies to
Fuld, who was turning 29 and bouncing between AAA and the majors. Lastly, Guyer
was 25 and had hit well at every stage. However, he had just played in AA, and
was only about league average age-wise. Overall, this is kind of an interesting
package, and kind of difficult to summarize.
Summary: Two top-100 prospects, probably in the top half,
both young with room for growth, plus a possibly-useful outfielder, and a
fourth outfielder and backup catcher.
Trade: Matt Garza 2
Age: 29
Year: 2013
Years Left: .5
Commentary: Olt had just been ranked a top-30 prospect
before the season (BA-22, MLB-22, BP-30), but had been struggling at AAA while
visiting the DL with vision problems. Edwards was just 21 and cleaning up at A
ball; he would be ranked #28/42/81, demonstrating a wide gulf in opinions. Neil
Ramirez was 24 and not doing badly in AA, but was only the league-average age
(24). Lastly, Justin Grimm was bouncing between the bullpen and AAA and MLB
rotations at the age of 24.
Summary: A top-30 prospect that had some health questions, a
young impressive top-40/50ish pitcher, and possible back-rotation pitchers.
Trade: Zack Greinke 1 (with Yuniesky Betancourt)
Age: 27
Year: 2010-11 offseason
Years Left: 2
Commentary: There’s Odorizzi again. Here, he was just a
21-year old coming off a solid run at A. 2011 marked his first foray onto top
prospect lists, as BA named him #69 and BP named him #77. Escobar had just made
his rookie season in Milwaukee and was going on 24. The year before, he had
been in the top 20 of both prospect lists (BA-12, BP-19). Jeffress was a fringe
prospect, appearing at #72 on Baseball Prospectus’s list the year before and #76
the upcoming year (and not at all on Baseball America’s list, following a #100
ranking way back before 2009). Lastly, there was Lorenzo Cain, 25-year old
outfielder with 22 games at AAA under his bet. He was doing well in the minors,
though, even if he was pretty close to league average age, limiting his upside.
Summary: A recent top-20 prospect, a pair of top-75ish
prospects (if you average them at least), and a low-ceiling outfielder with a
chance to be decent.
Trade: Zack Greinke 2
Age: 28
Year: 2012
Years Left: .5
Commentary: Segura was the major part of this deal. At 22,
he had been ranked#55 by BA and MLB before the season, and #67 by BP. Neither
of the other two pitchers were ranked. Both Hellwig and Pena were 23 and doing
okay at AA, near the league-average age. Neither was a top prospect, and
Hellwig improved while Pena went back a step afterwards.
Summary: A young top-60 prospect and two decent pitchers.
Trade: Ubaldo Jimenez
Age: 27
Year: 2011
Years Left: 2.5
Commentary: Ubaldo was in a bit of a slump going in to the
trade deadline, and he’s been…spotty at best since then (as a slightly jaded
Orioles fan). White and Pomeanz were both 22-year old pitching prospects, taken
in consecutive first rounds by Cleveland. White, in AAA, was ranked #47 by BA
and #71 by BP before the season. Pomeranz, meanwhile, was just ranked #61 by BA
and #43 by BP, and was having a strong minor league debut that would bump him
up to #30 and #34. Gardner was a 23-year old pitchers scuffling in AA, while
McBride was a 26-year old outfielder in AA. Needless to say, the deal was more
about White and Pomeranz.
Summary: A top-40 and a top-50 pitching prospect, plus spare
parts.
Trade: Erik Bedard
Age: 29
Year: 2007-08 offseason
Years Left: 2
Commentary: This has to be one of the more lopsided trades
in recent memory. Jones, having just turned 22, had just lost his prospect
status with a few games in the majors. He had a strong 2007 campaign at AAA the
year before, and was rated a top prospect in 2007 before losing his rookie
status that year (BA-28, BP-44). Tillman would be ranked #67 by BA and #44 by
BP at the end of the offseason, and would only rise the following year. When he
was traded, he was just 20 and had played as high as the high A level. Mickolio
was a 24-year old AAA reliever, which limited his upside a little . He had been
doing decently, however. Butler was a bit of a lottery ticket, being a 20-year
old pitcher with an inconsistent history up to A ball thus far. Lastly,
Sherrill was a 30-year old reliever coming off a great season, but with only a
one-year track record and three years of control left.
Summary: A top-40ish prospect, a top-50ish prospect, a solid
reliever, and a minor league starter and reliever.
Trade: Johan Santana
Age: 29
Year: 2007-08 offseason
Years Left: 1
Commentary: This may have been the best case of a lose-lost
blockbuster trade, with neither team getting anywhere near the benefits they
would have hoped going in. This was quite the set of youngsters, though. Guerra
was #35 in BA and #79 in BP going in to the 2008 season. His numbers look
shaky, until you realize that he was a 20 year old who had just made high A.
Gomez was about to be ranked #52 in BA and #65 in BP, and had been #60 and #34
the year before. He had just finished his age-21 season going between AAA and
the majors, so he was pretty advanced. Humber wasn’t on the 2008 lists
(possibly due to eligibility?), but he had been #73 (BA) and #26 (BP) on the
2007 rankings, and was a 25 year old who had just finished AAA. Lastly, there
was Mulvey, a 23-year old who had spent most of the last season in AA. He
wasn’t bad there, although he wasn’t top-100 level.
Summary: Two top-50 pitchers (one top-30 and one top-80,
although which was which was debatable), a top-50 outfielder, and a solid minor
league pitcher.
Trade: Mat Latos
Age: 24
Year: 2011-12 offseason
Years Left: 4
Commentary: Alonso was about to be ranked #33 by BA, #39 by
MLB, and #86 by BP for the 2012 lists. The 25-year old had been trying to find
his footing, shuttling between AAA and the bigs when the Padres obtained him.
Fellow Cuban defector Yasmani Grandal, would also appear on all three lists at
#53 (BA), #68 (MLB), and #38 (BP). At 23, the catcher had just made AAA after
spending most of 2011 in AA. Boxberger was a relief pitcher in AAA. He was
mostly doing well, and at 23, was still developing. Lastly, there was Edinson
Volquez, who was more or less a back-end starter throw-in.
Summary: A top 40 prospect, a top-50, a decent and young
pitching prospect, and a placeholder starter.
Whew. That was…more intense than I had initially
anticipated. I didn’t even go looking for any past team top 10 lists or
anything. So were does that leave Price and Samardzija? As mentioned, both have
a year and a half of control and ace-like track records. Price is 28, while Shark
is 29, so both are young, too. However, my thinking after writing all of these
is that it seems pretty straight-forward; two top prospects, probably averaging
out to top-40 level (say, a top-20 and a top-60), another decent young player
(possibly towards the bottom half of your team’s personal top ten list), and
another spare part-type of some sort, usually more of a low-ceiling starter or
fourth outfielder. If you’re an interested team, that’s probably where the
bidding starts; who knows where it ends up from there.
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